A whitepaper for Celestica aims to help you bolster your forecast accuracy measurement and reporting. Many supply chains skimp on forecast accuracy due to the difficulty and time expense involved, which is why this whitepaper breaks the process down into three steps:
- Start with determining the method to calculate forecast accuracy.
- Determine how to calculate and eliminate any forecast bias in the process.
- Manage all of the data necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of the demand management process.
The point of forecast accuracy is to determine the effectiveness of an overall process, not to punish demand planners. Challenge assumptions to find the sources of errors, and speed up the process by using a dynamic, user-defined tool. Bias is still bound to creep in though, so be mindful of your unique company culture and the places from which bias might originate.
About managing data, the whitepaper states:
In order to correctly calculate forecast accuracy and bias, historical forecasts need to be captured and archived. Having an automated process for capturing historical forecasts in a data hub, or even inside your demand management tool, is very helpful and could prove to be critical for the success of the demand planning process.
You can view the full whitepaper here: https://community.kinaxis.com/servlet/JiveServlet/previewBody/9866-102-1-21339/Celestica%20Demand%20Management%20White%20Paper_2014.pdf