David Schneider returns to finish his thoughts from last week about how to get planning right in the supply chain. This time, he talks about asking yourself what can keep your plans from succeeding, and running through the scenarios where these disruptions occur.
Planning to Plan More
A plan consisting of a sequential list of tasks does not inspire much faith, whereas Schneider says a plan full of conditional if/then statements is much more likely to withstand risks. Businesses have the power to use tactical trends to approach tactical risks, but on the smaller strategic level, it is up to project managers to see the trends that mitigate risks. As an example of risk forecasting being done right, Schneider points to Shell Oil in the 70s, when they successfully predicted the Yom Kippur War of 1973 in advance and shifted their supply points to accommodate for it.
In his own forecasting as a program manager, Schneider always provides the statement, “Mr. Murphy maintains a shack on site. Our job is to try to keep him in his shack. But when he does walk the site, you better be ready with Plan B.” The idea here is that you cannot stop Mr. Murphy, but you can plan for what he does.
To learn more, and maybe find out why nobody likes Mr. Murphy, you can read the original article here: http://www.scdigest.com/assets/FirstThoughts/14-08-15.php?cid=8393